Sea-Intelligence, provider of Maritime Data & Analysis reported on such a disappointing analysis of global container turnover. Present low demand levels are not going to change and increase, so, this will be followed by high levels of capacity withdrawals. More details about it were reported by Seatrade Maritime News.
CEO at Sea-Intelligence Alan Murphy explained: “The IMF projection – if it turns out to be correct – is telling us that the current low demand levels are likely to persist for a while. Consequently, the high levels of capacity withdrawals are also likely to persist. This is a view that is also backed up by the actual capacity withdrawals thus far seen in Q3.”
He added that the situation is currently important because the region will drive demand to fill the brand new generation of ultra-large container ships.
“On the Asia-North America West Coast trade lane, there has been a sharp decrease in blank sailings as blank sailings are getting reinstated. While this is not due to a structural improvement on the trade, it is more so as a result of either carriers pulling out too much capacity from the trade in the first instance, or US importers fulfilling short term needs by using a faster US West Coast service instead of a US East Coast service with considerably longer transit times,” Mr Murphy said.
The port of Odessa also expected a drop of container trade volumes due to the pandemic. The decline in container trade was particularly marked in the Far East. However, these changes did not occur immediately, as Chinese manufacturers and producers implemented all contracts concluded long before the pandemic. In addition, before entering Ukraine, Chinese cargo overcomes a 40-day route.
It is important to distinguish natural fluctuations in the container market from fluctuations related to global blockage of ports.